# VLTimeCausality: Variable-Lag Time Series Causality Inference Framework

A framework to infer causality on a pair of time series of real numbers based on Variable-lag Granger causality (VL-Granger) and transfer entropy (VL-Transfer Entropy).

Typically, Granger causality and transfer entropy have an assumption of a fixed and constant time delay between the cause and effect. However, for a non-stationary time series, this assumption is not true. For example, considering two time series of velocity of person A and person B where B follows A. At some time, B stops tying his shoes, then running to catch up A. The fixed-lag assumption is not true in this case.

We propose a framework that allows variable-lags between cause and effect in Granger causality and transfer entropy to allow them to deal with variable-lag non-stationary time series.

## Installation

You can install our package from CRAN

`install.packages("VLTimeCausality")`

For the newest version on github, please call the following command in R terminal.

`remotes::install_github("DarkEyes/VLTimeSeriesCausality")`

This requires a user to install the “remotes” package before installing VLTimeSeriesCausality.

## Example: Inferred VL-Granger causality time series

In the first step, we generate time series TS\(X and TS\)Y where TS\(X causes TS\)Y with variable-lags.

```
library(VLTimeCausality)
# Generate simulation data
TS <- VLTimeCausality::SimpleSimulationVLtimeseries()
```

We can plot time series using the following function.

`VLTimeCausality::plotTimeSeries(TS$X,TS$Y)`

A sample of generated time series pair that has a causal relation is plotted below:

We use the following function to infer whether X causes Y.

```
# Run the function
out<-VLTimeCausality::VLGrangerFunc(Y=TS$Y,X=TS$X)
```

The result of VL-Granger causality is below:

```
out$BICDiffRatio
[1] 0.8882051
out$XgCsY
[1] TRUE
```

If out\(XgCsY is true, then it means that X VL-Granger-causes Y. The value out\)BICDiffRatio is a BIC difference ratio. If out\(BICDiffRatio>0, it means that X is a good predictor of Y behaviors. The closer out\)BICDiffRatio to 1, the stronger we can claim that X VL-Granger-causes Y.

## Citation

Chainarong Amornbunchornvej, Elena Zheleva, and Tanya Berger-Wolf (2019). Variable-lag Granger Causality for Time Series Analysis. In Proceedings of the 6th IEEE International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA), pp. 21-30. IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/DSAA.2019.00016 arXiv